How Quantum Computing is Threatening RSA and Current Encryption Methods
By: Yossi Aviv
Quantum computers are extremely powerful computers based on quantum mechanics theory. Instead of a bit (0 or 1), their smallest data unit is called a qbit.
The significant advantage of a quantum computer stems from its ability to solve problem significantly faster and more efficiently than a regular computer.
The high-level computing abilities of the quantum computer, mainly the factorization of numbers and performing several searches simultaneously, poses a critical challenge to current encryption methods as, theoretically, they can crack common encryption methods such as RSA and ECC substantially faster than a regular computer.
The quantum race
While on the one hand government agencies, academia, and companies such as Microsoft, IBM, Google and Intel are in a race to develop a quantum computer with “quantum supremacy” (the four companies have announced this) – which will enable them to perform tasks at a speed that no regular computer can ever perform within a feasible period of time – on the other hand, security organizations are racing to develop encryption methods and algorithms that will be able to withstand cyberattacks of malicious actors who will be equipped with quantum computers.
The post-quantum threat
The question is no longer “if” but “when” there will be a quantum computer that will be able to crack the encryption methods currently used for internet communication: data encryption, digital signatures, IOT and additional applications based on the Public key infrastructure (PKI).
Many IT organizations do not know the type of encryption they use and which applications use it.
If data that is encrypted using current methods (PKI) was stolen, some day it will be possible to break the encryption.
Just recently, the NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) published new algorithms.
In 2015, the National Security Agency (NSA) published a statement announcing that: “for those partners and vendors that have not yet made the transition to Suite B elliptic curve algorithms we recommend not making a significant expenditure to do so at this point, but instead to prepare for the upcoming quantum resistant algorithm transition. The reason is the imminent large scale coming of quantum computers.”
Will RSA encryption be cracked in the near future?
Leading security system manufacturers predict that quantum computers will be able to break 2048-bit RSA encryption within 3-7 years.
At the same time, mathematicians and various experts maintain that we will also see the ability to break ECC as well as 4096-bit RSA within 4-14 years.
The bottom line is that we can state with certainty that the quantum computer will pose a big enough threat to existing algorithms (ECC, RSA). Moreover, while this type of computer is entering the mainstream, currently available systems are still very rudimentary, certainly compared to where they may be in the future, and many of the large actors in the industry are focused on advancing quantum computing to the next stage.
The National Quantum Initiative Act (NQIA) which was passed in the U.S. aims to ensure the leadership of the United States and its allies in quantum computing.
The quantum stage of cyber warfare
Clearly other countries, among them Israel, China, Japan and perhaps even Iran, are investing extensively in national strategies in order to gain a leading advantage in manufacturing useful quantum computers, as well as in other quantum technologies for commercial offensive, defensive and state applications.
Plans for migration to quantum-safe algorithms are already underway by security companies.
“Many IT organizations do not know the type of encryption they use – including which applications use it, where it is used, or who in the organization makes decisions about cryptography.” Gartner
To help secure applications and data, security and risk management managers in the organization must:
- Plan for changes in cryptographic algorithms by building an inventory of MetaData for applications that use cryptography. This will enable the organization to prepare for the impact of the new cryptography, assess the risk to specific applications and prioritize incident response plans accordingly.
- Begin preparing for quantum encryption today by establishing a Cryptographic Center of Excellence. This center will coordinate the organization’s cryptographic policy, protect valuable data, examine how algorithms are currently used and provide expertise to teams engaged in encryption in the organization.
Comda and Comsign – at the forefront of data security
Comda and Comsign are at the forefront of cybersecurity and in the process of examining the integration of IT security solutions under development by the leading computer security companies in the world, for its customers, in the aim of ensuring a smooth transition to quantum-secure systems.
The acquired knowledge is offered to the company’s customers, for both in-depth discussion and for establishing joint teams.
Comsign already has HSM solutions for a smooth, reliable and cost-effective transition to quantum security, while maintaining backward compatibility with existing systems. This is possible without compromising on the algorithms approved by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST).
The most recent quantum security standard, CNSA 2.0, which the NSA published in September 2022, specifies the new algorithms for the quantum age:
- For asymmetric encryption – Crystals algorithm (Dilithium and Kyber)
- For symmetric encryption – AES and SHA
- For software and firmware updates – XMSS and LMS
NSA states that software and firmware manufacturers must immediately begin transitioning to these algorithms. It also states that their use is preferred by 2025, and that the use of old algorithms will not be possible after 2030.
- Web browsers and servers – preferred as of 2025, and use of old algorithms prohibited as of 2033.
- Computer networking equipment – preferred as of 2026, and use of old algorithms prohibited as of 2030.
- Operating systems – preferred as of 2027, and use of old algorithms prohibited as of 2033.
- Niche actors such as PKI manufacturers and authorizing entities – preferred as of 2030, and use of old algorithms prohibited as of 2033.
- Applications that are impacted must conform to the new algorithms as of 2033.